With Romney out, is Thompson going to take the lead?

Romney outspent all the other candidates combined in both Iowa and New Hampshire, and yet he was unable to take first place in either state. This should prove that he is unviable as a candidate. If he drops out, we’re left with John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson (no one really believes Ron Paul can pull it off, do they?). With so many social conservatives in the Republican party saying that they will not vote for Giuliani and so many fiscal conservatives saying they will not vote for Mike Huckabee, it seems that either John McCain or Fred Thompson would be the logical choice. Conservatives are not likely to forget the many times that John McCain has stabbed us in the back, so that leaves us with Fred Thompson. I think there’s a good chance he’s going to start rising in the polls pretty soon to become the front-runner.

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30 Responses to “With Romney out, is Thompson going to take the lead?”

  1. Lincoln says:

    I only wish Fred didn’t make such a lackluster opening start to his campaign, so much that one of the a-list bloggers who runs Evangelical Outpost jumped ship and went with… Huckabee???

    This is why I can’t go to church anymore. I can’t stomach the thought of being near people who are so void of common sense that I simply must beat the living snot out of them in the futile hope that they might actually see the error of their ways. :P

  2. casey says:

    I think he just waited too long to get in. The expectations were too high from the get-go. The timing of his entry into the race came just after the Huckaboom got into full force, unfortunately. We’ll see what happens in South Carolina and Florida.

  3. Lincoln says:

    Rudy! Rudy! Rudy!

    Uhhh, I mean, Freddie! Freddie! Freddie!

    :D

  4. casey says:

    Here you go Linc:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1jySvJf9Ss
    That oughtta convince you to vote Fred. :P

  5. Lincoln says:

    LOL, I hope you know I’m teasing about Rudy. :D He’ll always have a special place in my heart (being that he’s Italian), but given a choice I’d vote for Freddy.

    Actually, I’d vote for Duncan Hunter since he seems to be the most principled conservative. :)

  6. Kansas Bob says:

    I think that Romney has the most delegates so far but I could be wrong.

  7. casey says:

    @Linc
    Yeah, I knew you were joking, but I still thought you’d like that video. :)

    @Bob
    Romney’s got 9 more delegates than Huckabee and 20 more than Thompson with 1,200 to go. That’s not much of a lead. He’ll come in around third place in the South, and then he’ll be finished.

  8. Kansas Bob says:

    So far Romney is the only candidate campaigning in all of the primary states and that is why he is ahead by a small amount even though he has not won anything yet.. I wonder how this will work in the long haul. guess we’ll know in a month or so.. maybe 3rd in the south will be good enough if he can win the west?

  9. casey says:

    Actually he did win Wisconsin, did he not? Time will tell, but I don’t think he’s a viable candidate.

  10. Ash75 says:

    What exactly do you mean by Romney being “out”?

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080116/ap_on_el_pr/primary_delegates

    It’s hard to make any predictions at this point.

  11. casey says:

    I mean that it should be obvious by now that he is nonviable as a candidate. He’s our version of John Kerry. He won Michigan because the Democrats in that state wanted to keep him in the race.
    http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59649

  12. casey says:

    You’re right, though. It’s hard to make predictions at this point. Anything is possible. Fred winning is basically wishful thinking on my part.

  13. Ash75 says:

    >He won Michigan because the Democrats in that state wanted to keep >him in the race.

    Sounds like a conspiracy theory. WND has some pretty good articles you won’t find anywhere else, but many of them are far-fetched and downright silly.

  14. casey says:

    If you look at the exit poll data you can see that there were lots of Democrats and independents voting in the Republican primary (1/3 or something of the total). It’s not a conspiracy theory. That kind of thing will happen in states where the primaries are open.

  15. Ash75 says:

    http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#MIREP

    According to this link 7% of Dems voted for a GOP candidate, with the majority of Dem and Independent votes going to McCain (check the “Vote by Party ID” section. Not sure how accurate this is though.

    Still, how much pull do you think radical, conspiracy theory-esque group like DailyKos has? I certainly hope very little.

  16. casey says:

    You’re right. I saw the WND story first, and then when I saw that there had been a lot of Democrats and Independents voting in the primary (the story I saw said 1/3 or so), I just assumed they were voting for Romney. I guess he does have a shot among Republican voters, after all.

  17. Ash75 says:

    I think a more sensible reason he won Michigan is that he spent a lot of time and money there, and apparently it’s his hometown.

  18. casey says:

    He spent a lot of money in Iowa and New Hampshire, too, but he wasn’t able to pull off a win in those two states. His message must have simply resonated with the voters in Michigan.

  19. Ash75 says:

    But he did manage to get second in both of those two states, and is now in first place among all Republicans. Definitely can’t be considered “out” of the race yet at first place.

    I’d say Thompson desperately needs a win in South Carolina, or he’s done. Right now it looks like he’s in fourth place or so in SC.

    Then again, it’s hard to predict.

  20. Ash75 says:

    Scratch the “two” = both of those states ;)

  21. casey says:

    Wishful thinking, I admit it. If Romney gets the nomination I’ll probably sit this election out. His pro-abortion healthcare plan and liberal stance on special rights for homosexuals are too much for me to swallow.

    Fred’s going to get first place in SC. Just wait and see. He’s the only one moving up in the polls right now. He’s been campaigning harder there than anyone else, and that seems to be the recipe for winning if the other primaries are any indication.

  22. Ash75 says:

    Ann Coulter just endorsed Romney, as did Tom Tancredo, and even James Bopp of NRTL (although not officially). It seems like these people would know about his record. Why are they so gung-ho about him?

    To be honest, I’m not even registered to vote, so I won’t be voting this year unless you know of a quick and easy way I can register here in Japan. In spite of all the evidence, I still think Mitt will stay pro-life if he’s president. How could he suddenly switch back after making his position clear to the entire country? He’d be utterly humiliated. On the other issues, he has way more business experience than any of the other candidates, and probably would be great for the economy.

    You know I like to listen to Enyart’s radio show, and he has been spending most of his time trashing Romney lately, and committing a little bit of time to trashing Fred and Ron Paul. He says all of them are pro-choice–state by state.

  23. casey says:

    You can register here in Japan by contacting the county election commission in the state of your last residence. You’ve still got plenty of time to do it before November. You can only vote two months in advance, so if you register now you’ll have no problems voting.

    How could someone who is prolife come up with a healthcare plan that covers abortions? That just doesn’t make sense. He can flip after he becomes president because he’s already known as a flip flopper. It won’t hurt him a bit. He’ll say he’s personally prolife and then sign onto a whole bunch of legislation that makes abortions more widely available.

    National Review also endorsed Romney. For the life of me, I can’t figure out why all these people are endorsing the lesser of four evils. There is a true conservative in the race (Fred), so if we’re going to be led by principle we should all be supporting him (even if we think Romney has a better chance in the general election–which I doubt).

  24. Ash75 says:

    Even your guy Rush kinda likes him.

  25. Ash75 says:

    Thanks for the registration info, Casey.

  26. casey says:

    No, if you listen closely, he doesn’t like Romney or Huckabee for president. He says the only true conservative in the race is Fred Thompson. He’s said nice things about Romney, but he’s also said nice things about Huckabee, Giuliani and even McCain. He’s already said he’s going to get behind whichever Republican gets the nomination, though. So if Romney gets the nomination Rush will be supporting him over the Democratic candidate. He’ll support Giuliani, too. Rush is more of a pragmatist, and he doesn’t appear to be concerned that we’re going to lose the heart and soul of the Republican party if we nominate a liberal. He’s convinced that a Democrat in the White House is far worse than a liberal Republican. I’m not so sure about that, though.

  27. Ash75 says:

    Well, you listen more than I do, but I haven’t ever heard him imply he doesn’t want Romney for president. I have heard him trash Huck and McCain though. And then there’s this: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/18/limbaughs_praise_for_romneys_run_heard_loud_and_clear/

  28. casey says:

    Yeah, he obviously doesn’t want Huckabee or McCain to get the nomination (although he has stated explicitely that he is going to support whoever gets the nomination). He keeps saying it’s going to come down to Romney, Giuliani and Thompson. He’s said several times, though, that Thompson is the only real conservative in the race.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMZkkKLNibE

  29. Ash75 says:

    As far as I can tell, Fred definitely seems conservative on the issues, except for the fact that he rejects federal bans on abortion and gay marriage. I wonder why “on the issues” has him listed as a moderate (scroll to the bottom of the page):

    http://www.ontheissues.org/senate/Fred_Thompson.htm

  30. casey says:

    Moderate _conservative_ it says. They also say Huckabee is a “hard-core conservative,” which couldn’t be further from the truth, so I wouldn’t give it too much credence.
    http://www.ontheissues.org/Mike_Huckabee.htm